Long-term revenue forecast and analysis
Our Method
Using long-term price forecasts provided by experts, we simulate the optimizer’s decisions on a day-by-day basis using our field-proven algorithms. We also simulate the battery’s state every 15 minutes, as well as its wear and tear, using a calendar- and cycle-based degradation model based on depth of discharge. Degradation affects the battery’s usable capacity, which can cause its certified capacity to change.
Long-term revenue simulation for standalone or co-located batteries
We use the same algorithms as in our day-to-day operations to simulate long-term optimized battery revenue. This fundamental approach allows us to deliver accurate, interpretable results that are consistent with industry best practices. We can analyze a specific configuration or determine the optimal battery size based on the project’s internal rate of return (IRR).
Upon completion of the study, we will provide you with:
- A detailed report
- A Bankable Business Plan
- A .csv file that details all transactions performed at 15-minute intervals
With our unlimited subscription service, you can run simulations on your own: simply upload your configuration files to our customer portal, and once the simulations are complete, download the detailed results (.csv). These results can be easily incorporated into the business plan provided to you.
A financing tool
Based on the net revenue generated, we calculate the project’s IRR. This metric is used to determine the appropriate scale of the sites. The established business plan then allows you to model the impact of various parameters as well as the equity IRR. If you are interested in advanced financial modeling, we would be happy to connect you with our partner Greensolver. As experts in the field, they maintain over 1.3 GWh of batteries worldwide.
For which types of batteries
We can simulate both front-of-the-meter (FTM) and behind-the-meter (BTM) batteries, whether standalone or co-located, for all types of connections.
These scenarios are possible using the following (non-exhaustive) list of simulation parameters:
Setting | Role | Default value |
Commissioning and decommissioning dates | Determine the start and end of the simulation | January 1 of next year |
Number of sites considered | These sites are aggregated, in particular for the purpose of participating in system services | 1 |
Battery capacity and power | Key battery specifications | During the design process, several values are simulated |
Charge and discharge efficiencies | Among other things, it allows you to calculate energy losses during a cycle | 93% (85% for the RTE) |
1-Year Production Report | For a co-located battery, this allows you to simulate the generator's output | No generator, battery only |
Type of generator contract | Defines the site's behavior:
| No generator, battery only |
1-Year Usage Report | For a behind-the-meter battery, this allows you to simulate the site's energy consumption | No load, battery only |
Type of consumer contract | Defines the site's consumption cost | No load, battery only |
Contract Type: TURPE | Determines TURPE's fixed and variable costs | Short-form for fixed-tip use |
Ability to inject / withdraw | Prevents injection or withdrawal from the site. A site that cannot inject is in BTM | True for both |
Markets covered: FCR, aFRR, day-ahead, intraday | Decision to focus on certain markets only | All true; valuation of the aFRR using an asymmetric approach |
Costs taken into account: TURPE, wear and tear, cycles per day | Choice between maximizing revenue or net income. Accounting for degradation costs due to cycling | TURPE is taken into account, but not the cost of cycling due to degradation. Limit of 2 EFCs per day |
The stages of the study
Enter the site information, including at least the date of commissioning and the connection capacity
Kickoff meeting and study process lasting approximately 3 weeks
Presentation of deliverables and wrap-up meeting
Iteration based on feedback received during the presentation
They trust us
FAQ
Battery capacity based on connected load and, potentially, generation capacity, and energy storage capacity based on target markets, costs, etc.
Developing a BESS storage project on the same site as a power generation facility offers two main advantages: the first is the ability to share some of the development costs, such as connection costs or project management costs. The second benefit is reducing variable TURPE costs during operation. When the battery draws its energy directly from the power generation facility rather than from the grid, it avoids paying the TURPE associated with that draw.
Yes, the battery will degrade over time and through charging cycles, which affects its usable capacity. Usable capacity determines how much electricity can be stored during buying and selling and may be a determining factor for the certified capacities on SSYf units.
No, we rely on forecasts from companies that specialize in this field.